Will Bitcoin Drop Below $100K Before 2026?

• Majority of Kalshi traders bet Bitcoin stays under $100K
• 34% think BTC may fall below $90K
• Market sentiment remains cautious despite past highs

Market Sentiment Turns Bearish on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s long-term bullish narrative may be taking a hit—at least according to the prediction markets. Data from Kalshi, a regulated event-based trading platform, reveals that 69% of traders believe Bitcoin will not break above $100,000 by the end of the year. Even more alarming, 34% of participants expect Bitcoin to fall below $90,000 before the year wraps up.

This shift in sentiment comes after Bitcoin saw strong rallies earlier in 2025, pushing toward record highs. However, as the year closes, investors appear to be growing more cautious.

Why Traders Are Betting Against a Major Breakout

Several factors could be fueling the pessimism. First, macroeconomic uncertainties—including rising interest rates, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical risks—are putting pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

Second, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum above key resistance levels. While it came close to the six-figure mark, it failed to break through, leading some traders to anticipate a cooling-off period or even a correction.

Also, profit-taking by early investors and lack of fresh catalysts may be limiting upside potential in the short term.

What This Means for Bitcoin Investors

For long-term Bitcoin holders, this kind of short-term volatility is nothing new. Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp corrections—even during bull markets. Still, the Kalshi data serves as a clear signal of shifting trader expectations, particularly among short-term speculators.

Despite this bearish outlook, many analysts continue to see strong fundamentals backing Bitcoin. Institutional interest, increasing adoption, and limited supply still make BTC a compelling asset for long-term investors.

Ultimately, while the market might not see $100K Bitcoin in 2025, the larger trajectory for the asset remains up for debate. Investors should prepare for continued volatility as the year-end approaches.

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