77% Odds on 3 Fed Rate Cuts Before 2026: Kalshi
Traders on Kalshi now see a 77% chance of three Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2026.
- Kalshi traders expect three Fed rate cuts by 2026
- Market sentiment is shifting toward monetary easing
- Fed policy outlook impacts crypto and traditional markets
A new shift in market sentiment shows that traders are increasingly confident in future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to prediction market Kalshi, there is now a 77% probability that the Fed will implement three rate cuts before the end of 2025.
This growing consensus reflects optimism that the U.S. economy may soften enough to prompt monetary easing while avoiding a major recession.
Why Are Rate Cuts Expected?
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates high to curb inflation, but recent economic data suggest inflation may be cooling. If inflation continues to trend down while unemployment remains stable, the Fed could have enough room to reduce borrowing costs.
These cuts are expected to occur gradually over the next year or so. The 77% probability reflects a strong market belief in this path, especially with slowing job growth, softer CPI data, and global economic uncertainties pushing the Fed toward a more dovish stance.
Impact on Crypto and Markets
Lower interest rates generally encourage more investment in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the Fed cuts rates three times by 2026, it could fuel another bullish cycle for crypto markets.
Traders and investors should monitor upcoming Fed meetings and economic data releases. While the odds are not guaranteed, they provide insight into how the market is pricing in future monetary policy — and crypto could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
