Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle Is Over, Says Bitwise CIO
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan declares the end of the crypto four-year cycle, highlighting ETFs, institutions, and new policy as long-term drivers.
- Matt Hougan believes the traditional four-year crypto cycle is outdated.
- He cites ETF growth and institutional adoption as stronger market forces.
- Predicts a sustained crypto boom through 2026 and beyond.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has declared that the crypto market’s traditional four-year cycle—driven largely by Bitcoin halvings—is now a thing of the past. In a recent statement, Hougan emphasized that this once-reliable pattern is being overshadowed by deeper, long-term trends that are reshaping the industry.
While the halving events used to trigger predictable bull runs, Hougan notes that the latest Bitcoin halving had a notably weaker impact on price action. Instead, broader macroeconomic and structural shifts are taking over as key market drivers.
ETFs, Institutions, and New Legislation Are Reshaping the Market
According to Hougan, the emergence of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs has opened the door for mainstream investors to enter the space more easily. This institutional inflow, combined with increased adoption by wealth managers and hedge funds, marks a critical shift in how crypto markets operate.
He also pointed to the post-GENIUS Act investment climate—a reference to recent regulatory developments that are creating a more favorable environment for crypto innovation and capital formation. These forces, he argues, will play a much bigger role in market growth than the old halving-based narratives.
Rather than expecting a single “super cycle,” Hougan envisions a longer period of steady, sustainable growth, which he describes as a “sustained and steady boom.” He believes this shift makes the market healthier and more robust over time.
What to Expect Moving Forward
Investors looking toward 2026 and beyond should recalibrate their expectations. Instead of waiting for the next halving event to trigger a rally, Hougan encourages a focus on broader indicators: ETF flows, institutional buy-in, and supportive regulation.
This evolving market structure may lead to fewer explosive surges, but also fewer dramatic crashes—marking a move toward a more mature and balanced crypto landscape.
In short, the rules have changed, and understanding this new paradigm will be key for investors navigating the next phase of the crypto economy.
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