Bitcoin Unlikely to Hit $130K in October, Say Traders

• Traders give under 10% odds for Bitcoin crossing $130K in October
• 34% expect BTC to end the month below $100K
• Market sentiment reflects cautious optimism despite recent gains

As October progresses, Bitcoin’s price action has drawn keen attention from traders and analysts. According to predictions from decentralized betting platform Polymarket, expectations for a major Bitcoin rally this month are tempered.

Currently, Polymarket traders assign only a 9% probability that Bitcoin will end October above $130,000. This low percentage indicates a clear lack of confidence in the possibility of a sharp surge in the coming weeks.

In contrast, there is a 34% chance that Bitcoin will finish the month below $100,000, reflecting a more cautious stance among speculators. While these odds still leave room for mid-range moves, they suggest that traders believe a major breakout is unlikely in the near term.

Market Sentiment Still Cautiously Optimistic

Despite these tempered odds, the overall market sentiment around Bitcoin isn’t entirely bearish. Bitcoin continues to trade in a relatively strong range, and many investors remain hopeful that a breakout could come later in the year.

However, the current Polymarket odds highlight investor hesitation amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory pressure, and mixed signals from institutional investors. With Bitcoin’s historical volatility in mind, traders appear to be hedging their bets rather than going all-in on a price explosion this month.

What This Means for Crypto Investors

For crypto investors, the Polymarket data serves as a real-time barometer of crowd sentiment. While it’s not a guarantee of price action, it shows where money is flowing and how sentiment is shifting.

October has often been a bullish month for Bitcoin in past years, but 2025’s outlook remains unpredictable. The current data suggests that while hopes for six-figure prices exist, most traders aren’t banking on it — at least not yet.