Bitcoin NUPL in Euphoria: Is a Market Top Near?
Bitcoin's NUPL for long-term holders signals euphoria. How long can this phase last before a potential market top forms?
- Bitcoin’s NUPL is in euphoria, historically linked to market tops.
- Previous cycles saw this phase last between 450 and 228 days.
- NUPL values have gradually declined over past market cycles.
Bitcoin NUPL Hits Euphoria: What It Means for the Market
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders has remained in the “euphoria” zone for over a month, raising concerns about a potential market top. Historically, this level has been a strong indicator of peak cycles, suggesting that the current phase may not last indefinitely.
Historical Trends and Market Cycles
In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s NUPL remained in the euphoria range for decreasing durations:
- 450 days in the first cycle,
- 385 days in the next,
- 228 days in the most recent.
Additionally, the peak NUPL values have shown a downward trend, from 0.91 to 0.89 to 0.85. This suggests that while Bitcoin still experiences bullish momentum in each cycle, the intensity of speculative euphoria has slightly diminished over time.
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders has been in "euphoria" territory for over a month, a level that historically aligns with market tops.
— Satoshi Club (@esatoshiclub) February 18, 2025
In previous cycles, this phase lasted 450 → 385 → 228 days, with NUPL values declining from 0.91 → 0.89 →… pic.twitter.com/AENandoVbv
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Given historical patterns, Bitcoin may remain in this phase for a while, but traders should remain cautious. If the trend of shorter euphoria phases continues, a market correction or consolidation period could follow sooner than in previous cycles.
Investors should keep an eye on key market indicators such as trading volume, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic conditions to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move.
