Bitcoin Price Near ATH, But Network Lagging

• BTC Z-Score shows firm but not overheated momentum
• APD remains negative, indicating network lag
• Healthier setup needs network activity to catch up

Bitcoin’s price is hovering close to its all-time high, supported by a BTC Z-Score (Price, 30/365) of around +1.5σ above its one-year average. This level signals firm momentum, though it remains below the +2.5σ threshold that would suggest overheating. Traders see this as a sign of continued bullish sentiment without the signs of unsustainable price pressure.

APD Signals Network Activity Still Behind

The Adjusted Price-to-Demand (APD) metric remains in negative territory, near −1.5, after recovering from recent lows around −2. This means that while price growth has been strong, on-chain network activity has not fully kept pace. The gap is narrowing, but the current bias still leans toward price outpacing usage.

A truly balanced and sustainable market move would see APD return toward zero. That could happen either through an increase in network activity while price moves sideways or grows moderately, or through a slight cooling in price to match current network demand.

Why This Matters for Bitcoin Investors

APD moving toward zero is not a direct buy or sell signal. Instead, it serves as a normalization indicator, showing when network fundamentals and price are aligned. For long-term investors, this alignment often signals a healthier market structure, reducing the risk of a sharp correction.

With momentum strong but network metrics still lagging, Bitcoin’s setup remains bullish — but a better balance between price and usage would add stability to the rally.

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