Bitcoin Rally Shakes Up Market Cycle Theories

• Bitcoin’s rebound is defying traditional cycle expectations.
• CryptoQuant CEO may abandon the cycle model if BTC hits ATH before Q4.
• Market analysts reevaluate long-held crypto timing theories.

Bitcoin’s Rebound Defies Traditional Cycle Theory

Bitcoin’s recent rally is doing more than just pushing prices higher—it’s shaking the very foundation of how analysts have interpreted its behavior for over a decade. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the latest rebound is so strong and early that it’s starting to break down long-trusted cycle models.

In a bold statement, Ju said he would “abandon the cyclical model entirely” if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before Q4. The comment underscores a growing sentiment in the crypto world: maybe the game has changed.

What Are Bitcoin Cycle Theories?

Cycle theories in crypto generally revolve around Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur every four years and historically lead to a delayed price surge. These models have helped predict peaks in past bull runs, with rallies often unfolding months after each halving.

However, this time around, Bitcoin is already pressing toward its all-time high before the expected timeline—putting pressure on the model’s validity.

Some analysts suggest this could be driven by new factors like institutional ETFs, greater global adoption, and macroeconomic shifts, which are altering the rhythm of the market.

A Turning Point in Crypto Market Thinking?

If Bitcoin continues its momentum and sets a new ATH before Q4, it would mark a fundamental break from historical trends—and potentially shift how traders and analysts approach long-term forecasting.

Ki Young Ju’s comments reflect an openness to evolving models that better match today’s maturing, institutional-driven market dynamics. Whether the cycle model is dead or just in need of revision, one thing is clear: the market is evolving fast, and past patterns may not always repeat.