Bitcoin Capitulation Forecast: Is $90K the Next Stop?
Bitcoin slips below key levels as short-term holders sit in losses. Analysts expect deeper correction in September.
- Bitcoin trades below key cost bases of 1–6 month holders
- No real panic yet; deeper pain likely ahead
- Market insiders dumping stocks signals broader risk-off sentiment
Bitcoin has taken a sharp turn down, dropping 8% in just one week—right after a major analyst called the move in last Sunday’s market report. Now trading below $107,000, Bitcoin is officially underwater for all short-term holders who bought in the last 1 to 6 months.
To break it down:
- 1-month holders’ cost base is ~$115.6K
- 3-month holders: ~$113.6K
- 6-month holders: ~$107K
Bitcoin is now below all of these levels. That means everyone who bought recently is in a loss. Yet, despite this, the market shows no real signs of fear. No panic selling, no mass capitulation—just mild discomfort.
But that’s exactly the problem. This level of comfort signals to market makers that more pain is needed before a true bottom is in. According to the analysis, real corrections in bull markets typically show at least 25% drawdowns. So far, Bitcoin has only corrected around 10%.
Capitulation Is Coming – But Not Yet
Market makers thrive on one thing: panic selling. And right now, unrealized losses across the market are still less than 1%—a laughably small number compared to the 30%+ losses seen in major corrections.
The key zone to watch is $107K–$108.9K. If this line breaks, we could see a drop to $90K–$95K, which aligns with the projected bottom for this phase. The big message? The worst isn’t over—it’s just beginning.
September is expected to be a month of reckoning. As selling pressure builds and losses deepen, weak hands will be forced to sell, likely driving Bitcoin even lower before a real recovery can start.
Stock Market Insider Selling Adds Fuel
Adding to crypto’s bearish setup is something even more alarming: corporate insiders in the stock market are unloading shares aggressively. Over 200 insider trades hit the market last week, and not a single one was a buy.
These are the people with privileged access to financial data. Their actions suggest a broader shift to risk-off mode, and if stocks tumble, crypto is likely to follow.
As fear spreads and liquidity dries up, crypto markets—especially Bitcoin—could see intensified selling, just as the cycle’s pain phase begins.
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