Is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Coming to an End?
Bitcoin may be shifting away from its classic 4-year cycle as liquidity rises and no euphoria phase is seen.
- Bitcoin shows no blow-off top in this cycle
- Liquidity boost expected in late 2025 to 2026
- BTC could rally in 2026 as a macro asset
For years, Bitcoin has followed a well-known 4-year cycle — a pattern largely driven by its halving events. These cycles typically include a euphoric bull run, followed by a steep correction. But this time, things might be different.
Despite the latest halving in April 2024, Bitcoin hasn’t shown the same explosive price action or blow-off top that marked previous cycles. In past bull markets, BTC surged into parabolic rallies, often ending in a frenzy of retail participation. But 2025’s price behavior feels more tempered, more mature — and it might signal the end of the 4-year rhythm.
Liquidity Surge Could Drive 2026 Rally
One major reason the cycle might be extending: liquidity. Financial markets are bracing for a wave of liquidity injection in Q4 2025 and early 2026, as central banks could ease monetary policies and governments push for fiscal support. This liquidity boost is likely to benefit risk assets — including Bitcoin.
Rather than peaking in the typical post-halving year, Bitcoin might experience a delayed rally into 2026. This shift could reflect the asset’s growing alignment with global macro trends, rather than the internal tokenomics alone.
Bitcoin’s Evolution Into a Macro Asset
If Bitcoin does rally in 2026, it will mark a new chapter in its development — one where it acts more like gold or equities than a purely speculative crypto asset. Institutions are increasingly treating BTC as a hedge, and its correlation with macroeconomic cycles is strengthening.
A fading 4-year cycle, combined with global liquidity trends, could mean Bitcoin is entering a new era. This potential shift may bring more stability, deeper adoption, and long-term growth beyond the hype-driven cycles of the past.
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