- Bitcoin Dominance is down 4.5%, sparking a rise in altcoins.
- Past alt seasons saw BTC dominance fall sharply, triggering major alt runs.
- Current run likely shorter and influenced by ETH and XRP market share.
Recent weeks have seen a noticeable shift in the crypto market — altcoin outperformance is picking up as Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) slips. While BTC.D has only dropped around 4.5% from its local highs, the reaction among altcoins and their BTC trading pairs has been swift.
Historically, these drops in Bitcoin Dominance have been strong indicators of an upcoming altcoin rally. In early 2021, BTC.D dropped by a staggering 34% over 140 days, from 74% to 40%. A similar event occurred in late 2017 and early 2018. Both periods sparked some of the most explosive gains in altcoin history, even though the number of altcoins back then was a fraction of what we see today.
How This Compares to Past Alt Seasons
To put things in perspective, the current 4.5% drop in Bitcoin Dominance is tiny compared to past alt seasons. Back then, just 1% of today’s altcoin volume generated eye-watering returns, thanks to massive market concentration.
This time, even though we see some altcoin outperformance, much of the recent shift in dominance is due to the strong performances of Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), rather than a broad-based alt rally. These two coins are absorbing a large portion of the capital moving out of BTC.
What to Expect Going Forward
While it’s exciting to see altcoins rally, it’s important to manage expectations. Historically, alt seasons don’t last long — often just a few months — and they can end just as quickly as they begin. When the market starts to feel overheated, we usually see capital flow back into Bitcoin and stablecoins, as traders seek safety.
In short, while the current uptick in altcoin activity is promising, it doesn’t yet compare to previous full-scale alt seasons. Whether this leads to another explosive run remains to be seen — but history tells us to act fast if it does.
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