90% Chance Fed Holds Rates in March, Say Traders
Kalshi traders price in a 90% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in March, signaling market confidence in a hold.
- Traders on Kalshi see 90% odds Fed holds rates in March
- Market expects continued pause amid inflation moderation
- Fed signals caution despite improved economic data
Traders Bet on Fed Holding Steady in March
According to market predictions on Kalshi, a growing number of traders believe the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in its March 2026 meeting, with the current consensus showing a 90% probability of no change. This pricing reflects strong market confidence that the Fed’s battle with inflation is easing — enough to warrant a continued pause.
Kalshi, a regulated event prediction platform, allows users to trade on real-world events, including economic policy outcomes. The high probability suggests that investors are aligning with recent Fed communication and economic data pointing toward slowing inflation and stable job growth.
Why Markets Expect a Pause
Recent economic indicators, including moderating CPI numbers and resilient employment, support the idea that the central bank has room to maintain current rates without risking a resurgence in inflation. The Fed last raised rates in 2023 and has since adopted a wait-and-see approach, watching inflation trends and global financial conditions before making its next move.
While some hawkish voices remain within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the broader tone has leaned dovish in early 2026 — suggesting that policymakers prefer to avoid over-tightening in a stabilizing economy.
What It Means for Crypto and Markets
The expectation of stable rates is generally seen as a positive sign for risk assets, including crypto and equities, as it provides clarity and eases pressure on liquidity. With a likely hold in March, traders may find a window of reduced volatility — though unexpected economic surprises could still disrupt these forecasts.
If inflation continues to cool and growth remains steady, markets may begin to price in rate cuts later in 2026, further boosting bullish sentiment across both traditional and digital assets.
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