Bitcoin Price Rises as Long-Term Risk Drops
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Risk is falling even as price rises, signaling a healthy cycle reset and bullish trend continuation.
- Long-Term Risk is declining while Bitcoin price increases.
- Matured high-cost coins are reshaping LTH metrics.
- Market structure favors a sustainable price uptrend.
Bitcoin is showing signs of a healthy market structure as the price continues to rise while Long-Term Risk steadily declines. This divergence, typically rare during bull markets, suggests that the ongoing uptrend is sustainable and not driven by excessive speculation.
The key reason lies in the behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTHs). Since March, the LTH Realized Price — which reflects the average price at which long-term holders acquired their coins — has been increasing at a faster pace than Bitcoin’s spot price. This is primarily because coins purchased at higher prices during the spring and summer have now matured into long-term holdings (older than six months). As a result, the LTH Realized Price is rising, while the price itself moves more slowly.
High-Cost Coins Are Changing the Profit Landscape
The maturing of expensive Short-Term Holder (STH) coins into the LTH category is resetting long-term profitability in a healthier way. These newer coins, having a higher cost basis, are pulling the LTH Realized Price upward. Meanwhile, some older, cheaper coins are being spent or distributed, exiting the LTH group.
This rotation causes the LTH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio to remain stable rather than spike, which keeps the Long-Term Risk low. In previous cycles, high profits among LTHs often led to increased sell pressure and market tops. But now, because profitability is compressed without a price drop, it reduces incentives for LTHs to sell aggressively.
A Structure That Supports Cycle Continuation
What we’re witnessing is a rare but bullish structure. With every new all-time high, Long-Term Risk barely rises, suggesting that the market has room to grow. This environment allows fresh capital from new buyers (STHs) to absorb the selling pressure from older holders, making the bull cycle more durable.
In essence, the current Bitcoin cycle is experiencing a “profit reset” among LTHs without price collapse. This is a strong indicator of market maturity and long-term sustainability.
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