- MVRV 365DMA mirrors 2021’s double-top camel pattern
- The second peak previously marked the market’s top
- Pattern suggests a potential shift in the current crypto cycle
The crypto market may be nearing a pivotal moment if the MVRV 365DMA is any indicator. According to analyst @Yonsei_dent, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric is showing signs similar to its 2021 behavior. Back then, the MVRV formed a “double-top camel pattern” — a distinctive shape with one peak, followed by a second about six months later. This second peak closely coincided with the end of the bull cycle and the onset of the 2022 bear market.
Now, in 2025, we’re witnessing a strikingly similar formation. The MVRV 365DMA is once again climbing and could be forming its second peak. If history repeats, this could indicate that the current cycle is approaching its top.
What Is the MVRV 365DMA?
The MVRV 365DMA compares the market value of Bitcoin to its average realized value over the past 365 days. It is often used to determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the MVRV is significantly high, it means that market prices are much higher than what investors originally paid — a common trait during market tops.
This makes MVRV a valuable long-term indicator, especially when it forms consistent patterns like the one seen in 2021. That double-top pattern warned investors of an overheated market and accurately signaled a major trend reversal.
Should Crypto Investors Be Cautious?
While no indicator can predict markets with 100% accuracy, the current MVRV formation should prompt caution. If this second peak completes, we could be looking at a cycle top similar to late 2021. That doesn’t mean a crash is certain, but it could be time for strategic planning — including profit-taking or hedging.
Investors and traders should keep a close eye on this metric in the coming weeks. As always, combining multiple data points — including on-chain metrics and macro trends — is the best way to assess market direction.
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